India may see its weakest monsoon since 2009

India is heading toward its weakest monsoon season in 17 years. According to estimates from two senior officials at the country’s meteorological agency, rainfall during June-September could be around 15% below the long-term average — the weakest performance since 2009. This is significantly worse than the initial forecast, which projected a deficit of only 8%.

A weak monsoon poses significant risks to Indian agriculture, as seasonal rains provide around 70% of the country’s annual rainfall. September will be particularly important: insufficient moisture during crop maturation could reduce yields of soybeans, corn, cotton and pulses, while also depleting soil moisture ahead of wheat and rapeseed planting.

From the start of the monsoon season on June 1 through August 24, India has already received 13% less rainfall than normal. The deficit reached 35.4% in June, while conditions temporarily improved in July, when rainfall was 1% above normal. However, rainfall in August was again around 15% below average.

Meteorologists link the deterioration to strengthening El Niño conditions, which are expected to persist into September. With the exception of some eastern states, most of India could receive below-normal rainfall, while the September deficit could reach double digits. The monsoon may also begin withdrawing from northwestern India earlier than usual.

The rainfall shortage could affect more than the current crop. Lower soil moisture reserves pose risks to winter crops, particularly wheat and rapeseed, which will be planted after the monsoon season ends. Weaker harvests could also push domestic food prices higher and weigh on rural incomes.

The risks are also important for global agricultural markets. In previous years, strong El Niño conditions and weak monsoon rainfall have prompted India to restrict exports of some grains to protect its domestic market. A further deterioration in weather conditions could therefore once again influence the trade policy of one of the world’s largest agricultural producers.

Tags: corn, soybean, India, crop forecast