India expects record wheat harvest of 115 mln tons in MY 2025/26

India is set to harvest a record wheat crop of 115 million tonnes in the 2025/26 season, the US Department of Agriculture (USDA) said on Tuesday, citing favourable weather conditions and record sowing.

Last month, India’s agriculture ministry also forecast a wheat harvest of 115.3 million tonnes for the 2024/25 season (July-June), up 2% from the previous year. However, despite improved domestic grain supplies, Delhi is unlikely to lift an export ban imposed in May 2022 due to rising prices, the USDA said.

The agency said high import duties of 40% are holding back wheat imports, even despite relatively low global prices. The total area sown under wheat this season has increased to 32 million hectares, which is higher than the average of the last five years.

Wheat procurement by government agencies has already crossed 2 million tonnes. This is significantly higher than the 0.45 million tonnes procured in the same period last year. Particularly active deliveries are being recorded in the states of Madhya Pradesh, Rajasthan, Uttar Pradesh and Gujarat, where the harvest began earlier.

The Indian government plans to purchase a total of 31 million tonnes of wheat in the 2025/26 season under the Minimum Support Price (MSP) procurement operations. The main share will fall on the states of Punjab (12.4 million tonnes), Haryana (7.5 million tonnes), Madhya Pradesh (6 million tonnes), Uttar Pradesh (3 million tonnes), Rajasthan (2 million tonnes) and Gujarat (0.1 million tonnes). In the previous season, the government purchased 26.6 million tons of wheat.

Tags: wheat, India, crop forecast