In a few months, soybean crop forecasts in South America were reduced from a record to a 4-year low
March soybean futures on the Chicago Stock Exchange rose 2.2% yesterday to.511.2/ton, which corresponds to the level of the previous week, amid another decline in the harvest forecast in South America, as recent precipitation, according to analysts, is too late and insufficient to improve the condition of crops.
According to oil world experts, the gross soybean harvest in South America in 2021/22 MG will be the lowest in the last 4 years and will be 7.4 million tons lower than the harvest in 2020/21 MG. Due to unfavorable weather conditions, the forecast for the total soybean harvest in Argentina, Brazil, Paraguay and Uruguay was lowered from 202 to 186.3 million tons (193.69 million tons in 2020/21 mg) compared to December estimates.
In particular, in Brazil, soybean production in 2021/22 MG will decrease to 135 million tons (138.5 million tons in 2020/21 MG), although the sowing area increased from 41.4 to 43.3 million hectares compared to the previous season, as the yield will decrease to 3.12 t/ha.
In Argentina, almost 60% of crops experienced a lack of soil moisture (37% in the previous season), so now 29% of crops are in poor or very poor condition (23% in 2021). As a result, soybean production will decrease from 43.8 million tons in MY 2020/21 to 42 million tons in MY 2021/22.
In Paraguay, soybean production will decrease from 9.54 to 7 million tons compared to the previous season, while in Uruguay it will increase from 1.85 to 2.3 million tons.
Recall that experts of the Buenos Aires Grain Exchange estimate the soybean harvest in Argentina at 44 million tons, the Rosario Grain Exchange at 40 million tons, and according to the January forecast of the USDA, it will amount to 46.5 million tons.
The Brazilian representative office of the USDA this week lowered its estimate of the soybean crop in Brazil to 136 million tons, compared with a January forecast of 139 million tons due to lower yields caused by heavy rains and flooding in the state of Mato Grosso.
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