Significant improvements in crop conditions in major wheat-growing regions of the Canadian prairies is expected to boost the nation’s wheat production by 11% in 2024-25, according to a report from the Foreign Agricultural Service (FAS) of the US Department of Agriculture.
Production is estimated at 35.5 million tonnes, up from 31.9 million tonnes in 2023-24.
Due to improved moisture, crop conditions in Saskatchewan and Alberta are better than historical averages, the FAS said. The percentage of spring wheat area reported to be in good-to-excellent condition has increased 39 percentage points in Saskatchewan and 32 percentage points in Alberta over the previous marketing year.
Durum classified as in good-to-excellent condition increased 61 percentage points in Saskatchewan and 45 percentage points in Alberta as a share of total durum.
Total wheat exports are expected to reach 24 million tonnes in 2023-24, equating to 68% of domestic supply, one percentage point above the record-high in 2022-23.
“Canada is forecasted to become the world’s third largest exporter of wheat in 2023-24, after Russia and the European Union, according to international data from the USDA,” the FAS said.
Exports are forecast to increase to 25.7 million tonnes in 2024-25 based on the expectation of an increase in wheat production and an assumption that exports as a percentage of domestic supplies will remain high.
“The downside risk of this export forecast is that demand from China will decline from the high import volumes reached in 2022-23 and 2023-24 due to competitive pricing from other suppliers,” the FAS said.
