Imports of 750 thsd tons of wheat may only slow further flour price increases in Pakistan

Pakistan’s planned state wheat imports are expected to help curb further price increases, but market participants do not expect a significant decline in wheat or flour prices. Domestic wheat supplies remain tight, while high flour prices are already forcing consumers to reduce the quantities they buy.

The Trading Corporation of Pakistan held a tender to import 750 thsd tons of wheat. Nine international suppliers submitted offers totaling 656 thsd tons at prices ranging from $348.83 to $369.95 per ton, meaning the full tender volume was not covered.

Following the start of preparations for wheat imports, open-market wheat prices stabilized at around PKR 12,500 per 100 kg, equivalent to about $45 per 100 kg or $451 per ton. Market participants believe imported wheat may prevent another price increase, but see little scope for a sharp decline at this stage.

High prices are already changing consumer behavior. Quality flour in 5 kg packs costs around PKR 950–1,000, or about $3.4–3.6, while a 10 kg pack costs around PKR 2,000, or about $7.2. As a result, some households are shifting to smaller flour purchases.

Market participants also note that 750 thsd tons of imported wheat is a relatively small volume for Pakistan, where daily wheat processing is estimated at around 70 thsd tons. Imports may therefore ease market pressure temporarily, but their impact on retail prices is expected to remain limited.

Tags: Pakistan, wheat