The International Grains Council (IGC) has raised its global grain production forecast for the current season for the third consecutive time — by 13 mln tons to a record 2,425 bln tons.
The revision mainly reflects higher output of wheat and barley, as updated data confirmed better-than-expected yields in several key producing countries.
Global grain production is now expected to increase by 98 mln tons (+4%) compared to last season — the sharpest growth since 2016/17 — driven by significant rises in corn (+59 mln tons), wheat (+27 mln tons) and barley (+8 mln tons).
As only part of the larger supply will go to consumption, world ending stocks are projected 12 mln tons higher, reaching a three-year high of 618 mln tons.
Total grain consumption in 2025/26 is also forecast to reach a new record, with growth across food, feed, and industrial uses.
Supported mainly by higher wheat output, global grain trade is seen up 2 mln tons from the previous forecast to 440 mln tons, which is 16 mln tons above the previous year.
Global soybean production in 2025/26, despite a slight month-on-month downgrade, is forecast nearly unchanged year-on-year at 428 mln tons. Higher crops in Brazil, the Black Sea region and elsewhere will offset lower output in North America.
Soybean consumption is expected to edge up moderately to a new peak of 430 mln tons, while trade is projected 2 mln tons higher at 187 mln tons, reflecting stronger Asian demand.
Reduced beginning stocks will lead to lower ending stocks overall. Forecasts for soybean inventories among major exporters were cut sharply from last month, mainly due to downward adjustments for Brazil and Argentina.
