IGC raises global corn production forecast but expects grain stocks to decline

The International Grains Council (IGC) raised its forecast for global corn production in the MY 2026/27 to 1.307 billion tons in its October report, up from 1.301 billion tons in September. However, output would still be 3% below last year’s level of 1.347 billion tons. Total global grain production, including wheat and coarse grains, is projected at 2.427 billion tons, compared with 2.495 billion tons in the previous season. Thus, despite the improved corn outlook, global grain production is expected to decline by approximately 68 mln tons.

The IGC kept its global wheat production forecast unchanged from September at 820 mln tons, down 3% from the MY 2025/26. Meanwhile, global wheat and corn consumption is expected to remain relatively stable, according to analysts. Against the backdrop of lower production, global grain ending stocks are projected to decline by 3% to 619 mln tons. This trend indicates a gradual tightening of global grain reserves and greater market sensitivity to supply disruptions.

The IGC also highlighted the outlook for international wheat trade. Its forecast for global wheat trade in 2026/27 was lowered to 199 mln tons, representing a 7% decline from the previous season. Analysts cite the escalating conflict between Russia and Ukraine, two of the world’s largest wheat producers and exporters, as one of the reasons for reduced trade flows. Black Sea logistics restrictions are complicating international shipments and increasing uncertainty for countries dependent on imported grain.

Unlike grains, global soybean production could reach a new record in 2026/27. The IGC forecasts a 2% increase to 439 mln tons, supported by an expected record US harvest and substantial production in South America. At the same time, growing demand for soybean processing products is expected to support further consumption growth, potentially reducing global soybean ending stocks from 78 mln tons to 74 mln tons. Nevertheless, international soybean trade is projected to reach a record 190 mln tons, driven by stronger buying interest from Asian countries.

Despite the expected decline in grain production and global stocks, agricultural commodity prices eased somewhat in October. The IGC Grains and Oilseeds Price Index (GOI) fell by 3.5% compared with the September report, with prices declining across all major commodity groups except rice, which gained 1.6%. However, the index remains almost 20% higher than in October 2025. In particular, global soybean prices have risen by 23% year-on-year, while wheat and rice prices have increased by approximately 20%, indicating that agricultural commodities remain expensive despite the recent weakening of quotations.

Tags: corn, grain, Oilseed, global stocks, global market