IGC cuts global grain production forecast due to hot weather

The International Grains Council (IGC) has cut its forecast for global grain production in 2026/27 by 6 mln tons to 2.415 bln tons due to deteriorating prospects for wheat and corn crops. Prolonged hot weather in Europe has been a key factor, prompting the IGC to lower its EU production outlook for a second consecutive month.

The global wheat production forecast was cut by 4 mln tons to 817 mln tons, while corn output was lowered by 1 mln tons to 1.305 bln tons. Despite the downward revisions, total grain production is still expected to be the second largest on record, although 3% below last season’s record crop.

Global grain trade in 2026/27 is forecast to decline by 3.5% to 451 mln tons. Wheat trade is expected to see the largest decrease, falling by around 13 mln tons. The IGC cited disruptions to Black Sea exports as one of the main reasons: deep-sea shipments from Ukraine and Russia have effectively come to a standstill, with wheat exports since mid-July estimated to be around 4 mln tons below normal levels.

With production declining and consumption expected to remain stable, global ending grain stocks are projected to fall by 4.5% to 606 mln tons. Soybeans, however, are moving in the opposite direction: larger crops in the US and Brazil are expected to lift global soybean production to a record 441 mln tons, while trade could reach 190 mln tons.

Growing weather and geopolitical risks are already supporting prices. The IGC Grains and Oilseeds Price Index (GOI) has risen 3% since the July report to a two-year high. The index is almost 14% higher than in August last year, while wheat and soybean prices are both up 16% year-on-year.

Tags: crop forecast, weather conditions, grain, IGC