Although revised slightly lower from the previous monthly forecast due to cuts in barley and sorghum production, total grains output in marketing year 2025-26 is still expected to be a record, according to the International Grains Council (IGC).
In its latest forecast, released July 17, the IGC trimmed combined production of wheat and coarse grains by 1 million tonnes. But the full-year forecast remains a record by a large margin at 2.376 billion tonnes, a 2.6% increase from last year’s all-time high.
The Council said the expected record production is mainly because of anticipated bumper maize (corn) and wheat harvests. The IGC sees wheat increasing by 8 million tonnes year on year to 808 million, while corn production is forecast to increase by 48 million tonnes to 1.276 billion.
Including record food (+13 million tonnes), feed (+16 million tonnes) and industrial (+7 million tonnes) uses of wheat and coarse grains, a 2% increase in consumption is anticipated by the IGC.
Amid tentative expectations for larger southern hemisphere harvests, world soybean production is projected to be 1% higher year on year, at a peak of 428 million tonnes in 2025-26.
“While (soybean) availabilities should remain plentiful, a solid year-on-year gain in utilization could see carryovers tighten, including in key exporters,” the IGC said. “After edging up in the current year, global import demand is likely to expand by 2% in 2025-26 as South American suppliers take a bigger share of total volumes.”
Global rice output this year is projected to edge up, chiefly on gains in leading exporters, with a similarly modest 1% increase in uptake anticipated, boosted by growing food demand in Africa and Asia, the IGC said.
With gains in corn and soybean fob prices counteracting small losses for wheat and rice, the IGC’s Grains and Oilseeds Index (GOI) rose by 1% from the previous month.
The GOI is down 3.4% year on year, primarily because of a massive 32% decline in rice prices, which countered a double-digit gain in corn.
