Hot and Dry Weather in Argentina Continue to Impact Soybeans

After two weeks of relatively good weather, the forecast is calling for a return of hotter and dryer weather which the earlier planted soybeans can ill afford. The earliest planted soybeans were probably too far along in their development for any meaningful yield recovery. Some of the earlier planted soybeans are reported to have poor stands, reduced growth, and aborted flowers and pods. The hardest hit soybeans are in central and northern Santa Fe and Entre Rios. The recent rains have been most helpful for the later planted soybeans especially in western Argentina.

The soybean estimate was lowered 1.0 million tons this week to 38.0 million, but the estimate could easily move lower with an extended period of hot and dry weather. Even the later planted soybeans cannot afford to miss any opportunity for rain.

The soybeans were rated 46% poor/very poor, 42% fair, and 12% good/excellent. The good/excellent percentage was up 5 points compared to the prior week. The soil moisture for the soybeans was rated 53% short/very short and 47% favorable/optimum. The favorable/optimum percentage was up 10 points from the prior week. The earlier planted soybeans were 67% blooming and 32% setting pods/filling pods. The later planted soybeans were 10% blooming.

Noticas Agricolas is conducting a crop tour through Argentina. They were the municipality of Gonzalez Calderon in Entre Rios last weekend and reported that the average pod count in the region was 15 pods per plant, which is very low.

Below is the soybean condition rating in Argentina from the Buenos Aires Grain Exchange for February 2, 2023.

2022/23 Argentina Soybean Ratings*

*Source: Buenos Aires Grain Exchange – Crop Condition & Development Stages

Tags: weather, estimate, soybeans, forecast, yield