Higher prices may encourage expansion of US winter wheat area
Higher wheat prices and improved moisture prospects could encourage US farmers to expand winter wheat area for the 2027 crop. According to Texas A&M AgriLife Extension grain economist Mark Welch, winter wheat is becoming more competitive after a difficult 2026 season.
US winter wheat production totaled 990 mln bushels in 2026, the smallest crop since 1963. Harvested area fell to the lowest level since 1909, while the average yield of 47 bushels per acre was the lowest since 2015.
Higher prices provide an additional incentive for acreage expansion. The season-average farm price for wheat rose from $5.06 per bushel in 2025 to $6.20 in 2026. July 2027 futures were recently trading at around $7.53 per bushel in Chicago and $8.11 in Kansas City.
A developing El Niño could also improve production prospects. Forecasts indicate a more than 90% chance of a very strong event, increasing the likelihood of wetter conditions across parts of the southern US during winter.
Higher futures prices also strengthen revenue guarantees under crop insurance programs. However, fertilizer, fuel and other input costs remain elevated, meaning final planting decisions will depend on the balance between expected prices and production costs.
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