High prices could boost US winter wheat acreage

US farmers are starting to plant winter wheat for the 2027 harvest amid widespread dryness, although a sharp rise in prices could encourage an expansion in acreage. As of August 30, planting was 4% complete in North Dakota and 1% in Wyoming, while fieldwork had yet to begin in key hard red winter wheat-producing states.

Dry conditions remain the main concern. Topsoil moisture was rated short to very short across 66% of Kansas, 88% of Oklahoma, 89% of Texas and 81% of Colorado. In Kansas, planting typically accelerates in late September and October, leaving some time for rainfall to improve conditions.

At the same time, the price environment is much more favourable than a year ago. Cash prices for hard red winter wheat with around 12% protein have risen from roughly $5.93 to $9.42 per bushel over the past year, an increase of nearly 59%. This gives growers an opportunity to lock in forward prices at levels not seen for around three years.

High wheat prices combined with losses in spring-planted crops could encourage additional acreage. Heat and drought may lead some corn and soybean fields to be harvested early or abandoned, freeing land for winter wheat. Kansas Wheat estimates that the state’s wheat acreage could remain near last year’s level or increase by around 3%.

The market is also being supported by a sharp decline in this year’s crop. USDA estimates 2026 US HRW wheat production at just 497 mln bushels, down 38% year on year and the lowest since 1957/58. Total US winter wheat production is forecast at 1.03 bln bushels, down 27% from last year and the smallest crop since 1965/66.

Tags: prices, winter wheat, USA, acreage