High import prices could support Pakistan’s domestic wheat market

High import costs could limit the downside for domestic wheat prices in Pakistan even after imported grain arrives. Local traders and flour millers expect imports to curb further price increases rather than trigger a significant decline in prices.

The Trading Corporation of Pakistan is holding a tender to purchase 750 thsd tons of 2026-crop wheat on CFR Karachi and/or Gwadar terms. Nine international companies participated in the tender.

According to market data from Pakistan, imported wheat is currently being offered at around $320–325/t. After freight, port charges and other import costs are included, its domestic market value could reach around 100–101 rupees/kg.

At the same time, domestic wheat and flour prices in Pakistan have already risen sharply due to tight supply. In July, wheat in Punjab was trading at around 4.3–4.5 thsd rupees per maund, while higher raw material costs continued to support flour and bread prices in September.

Imports of 750 thsd tons should increase supply and reduce the risk of a further shortage, but the high landed cost of imported grain limits the scope for a significant decline in wheat prices. Further price trends will depend on import volumes, domestic stocks and grain availability on the open market.

Tags: prices, Pakistan, wheat, imports