Heatwave in the EU raises concerns over oilseed crops

Europe’s oilseed sector is facing increasing weather-related challenges as prolonged heat and limited rainfall affect crop development across several EU countries. According to analysts at Expana, sunflower and soybean crops are becoming more vulnerable to drought stress, while rapeseed prospects remain relatively stable.

Against this backdrop, Expana has raised its forecast for EU rapeseed production in the MY 2026/27 to 20.4 million tonnes, up 150,000 tonnes from its previous estimate. Despite the upward revision, the crop is still expected to be slightly smaller than last season’s harvest.

In contrast, the outlook for sunflower seed production has been revised downward. The new forecast stands at 10.2 million tonnes, 60,000 tonnes below the previous estimate. Nevertheless, the projected crop remains significantly larger than last year’s harvest, which was heavily affected by extreme summer heat in southern Europe.

The soybean outlook has also weakened slightly. Expana now expects EU soybean production to remain below 3 million tonnes, citing continued moisture deficits in several growing regions. Analysts noted that future rainfall patterns will be critical for determining final yields.

Despite the adjustments, total EU oilseed production in 2026/27 is forecast at 33.6 million tonnes, compared with 31.8 million tonnes in the previous season. Higher sunflower output is expected to offset the modest decline in rapeseed production, allowing overall oilseed supplies to increase year-on-year.

Tags: crop forecast, soybean, sunseed