Heat in the US and rain in Europe and Ukraine will affect grain markets in the coming days

Traders are very concerned about the hot weather that has prevailed this week in the growing regions of corn, soybeans and spring wheat in the US, but forecasts of precipitation and lower temperatures in the next 7-10 days keep prices from speculative growth.

In the Midwest of the USA, the heat will remain at 35-37 ^o C for another 2-3 days, which will negatively affect the planting of soybeans and corn, but already next week, scattered precipitation will lower the temperature to 28-30 ^o C and stress the plants. Showers are expected from the middle of the week, which will be very important for corn during the pollination and pouring period.

In the Southern and Central plains, the heat will remain at 35-37 ^o C during the week, which will intensify dry conditions in some areas. But there will also be scattered rains next week. Rainfall in drought-stricken northern areas will reduce the effects of the heat and replenish moisture reserves. But stress on spring wheat and soybean crops will remain, which could reduce yield potential.

In some areas of the Canadian prairies, a cold front will bring precipitation in the next few days. Southern Alberta and Saskatchewan are suffering from drought, but after the weekend there will also be rain that will improve moisture reserves in the wheat and canola crops that are in the pouring stage.

A major cyclone will move across Europe from north to south for 10 days, reducing the heat in the south and improving the prospects for late crop harvests, although it will delay the harvest of wheat, barley and canola.

In the Black Sea region, especially in Ukraine, short-term rains and variable temperatures are expected next week, favorable for the cultivation of corn and sunflower. But in the west and in the center of Ukraine, rains during wheat harvesting have worsened the quality of grain, so the share of food wheat will decrease to 10-30% compared to 60-70% in recent years. It is worth noting that the yield of wheat and rape is higher than last year.

The harvesting of corn in Brazil and Argentina is delayed, which plays into the hands of exporters from Ukraine and the USA. According to the agency Conab, as of July 22, corn of the second harvest in Brazil has been harvested in 48% of the area (60% last year) due to the lack of free containers for grain storage in some regions due to the too slow shipment of soybeans.

According to the BAGE exchange, in Argentina, corn has been harvested on 68.4% of the area (only +2.3% for the week) due to long rains.

Tags: Ukraine, Brazil, EU, prices, drought, USA, crop condition, Argentina