Heat and drought to cut EU soybean crop by 10–15% – Donau Soja

EU soybean production could decline to 2.5–2.6 mln tons in 2026, down 10–15% from the previous year, according to Donau Soja. The weaker outlook is mainly due to persistent heat and moisture deficits, which have reduced yield potential across parts of Central and Western Europe.

However, conditions vary considerably between countries. Soybean yields in Croatia, Romania and Poland are currently expected to remain close to their respective five-year averages. Overall, lower production could make European soybean supply tighter and more uneven in the 2026/27 season.

The decline in domestic production comes ahead of the application of the EU Deforestation Regulation (EUDR). From December 30, 2026, its requirements will apply to large and medium-sized operators and traders, while micro and small companies will be covered from June 30, 2027.

For soybeans and other commodities covered by the EUDR, companies will have to demonstrate that products are deforestation-free, comply with relevant legislation in the country of production and are covered by the required due diligence process. This includes collecting supplier information, plot-level geolocation data and assessing relevant risks.

Donau Soja notes that a smaller and more uneven crop could change sourcing patterns, suppliers and logistics routes in the European soybean market. With the EUDR application date approaching, supply-chain traceability and reliable data on product origin are becoming increasingly important.

Tags: Donau Soja, weather conditions, EU, soybean, soybean crop, drought, heat