Has Ukrainian wheat price hit the bottom?
According to the USDA, the world wheat balance must increase in MY 2021/22, mainly at the expense of larger crops in the EU (+12.3 MMT from 2020) and Ukraine (+4.58 MMT).
Ukrainian wheat now enjoys good export prospects for MY 2021/22 because imports by major buyers (Indonesia, Egypt, Turkey) are estimated to be higher than last season.
At the same time, because of spring wheat problems in northern parts of the USA and Canadian Prairies, price growth on American exchanges is influencing European wheat prices as well. Moreover, it underpins prices in the markets of related coarse grains such as corn and barley.
Ukrainian milling wheat price closed the week up USD 2 despite good crop condition and high average yield. The seasonal wheat-price low due to the harvest start seems to have passed.
In the future, the most influential factor will be foreign demand, prices will begin to stronger respond to the results of Egyptian tenders, and the market will keep a close eye on the volume of sea shipments.
The prices may fall again under heavy pressure towards November-December, when Australian and Argentinean wheat will begin arriving in the market. And wheat crop outlook in these countries is good for now, UkrAgroConsult reports.
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