Grain markets end the day lower. Tuesday, May 3, 2022

This was another choppy day of trade with the grain markets lower again today. The fundamentals I view as bullish, but the big concern is the macro market factors as everyone braces for the Fed announcement tomorrow and the language about how many additional interest rate increases are likely this year. Bottom line: it is tough for the commodity markets to rally when interest rates and the U.S. dollar is trending higher.

July corn closed 10 cents lower today at $8.93. December corn closed down 7 cents at $7.35 ¼. July soybean futures closed down 15 cents, while the November contract closed 12 cents lower. CBOT wheat was down 10 cents. KC wheat down 5 cents, and Minneapolis July down 12 cents.

Most of the loss today was because of commodity fund liquidation. I expect to see some new export sales announced in the next two days as global buyers again step in to get some of their needs covered.

Livestock futures closed mixed on Tuesday. June Hogs closed down $2.77 at $102.20, June Cattle closed up 12 cents at $135.32 and May Feeders closed up 97 cents at $162.40.

In the outside markets crude oil has had over a $3 trading range and is down $2.20 per barrel. The stock market rallied back from early losses, with the Dow stock index up 144 points at this time.

This has been a very choppy day. After trading lower in the overnight trade, the grain markets rallied back until about 10 a.m. and have now turned lower again. The fundamentals are viewed as positive, but there is fear today that when the federal government raises interest rates, the U.S. and global economy will slow down, reducing consumer demand.

At this time, July corn is down 5¢, with December down 2¢. July soybeans are now 5¢ higher with November soybeans down 2¢. July CBOT wheat is 8¢ lower, KC wheat is down 7¢, and Minneapolis wheat is now down 7¢.

Crude oil was down over $1.00 per barrel early today and the stock market is now higher after a lower start. In international price terms, corn and soybeans are trading at all-time highs due to the combination of high futures price and the strong U.S. dollar.

Farmers in North Dakota are telling me that if it stops raining today, that it will be two weeks until they can get in the field. I look for less spring wheat than earlier forecasts, and possibly 2 million acres prevent plant in just North Dakota alone.

Too wet and too dry, that is the problem on two continents today. The U.S. Corn Belt is staying cold and wet, delaying planting and possibly preventing more acres being planted.

In Brazil, it is staying too dry and private analysts are taking the projected size of the double crop corn down by another 150 million bushels this week.

In the early grain trade, after starting out lower July, corn is now up 6¢, July soybeans are trading 8¢ higher, and wheat futures are 1¢ to 6¢ higher.

The USDA Oilseed Crush report yesterday was right in line with trade estimates, showing that 192.8 million bushels of soybeans were crushed last month, with soybean oil stocks reported at 2.434 billion pounds. There are no signs of price rationing yet, and after plunging lower yesterday soybean oil is higher in the early trade.

The USDA Crop Progress report showed slower-than-expected corn planting and the lowest hard red winter wheat ratings ever. The extended forecasts are favorable with the Corn Belt likely to dry out, and rain hit in the dry southern Plains.

In the outside markets, crude oil is down $1.40 per barrel, the U.S. stock market is slightly lower, and livestock futures steady to higher.

Author: Al Kluis

Tags: corn, grain, животноводство, soybean, hogs, wheat, cattle, futures, markets, feeders