Grain export problems could hit Ukraine’s 2027 crop production

Restrictions on Ukrainian grain exports through seaports could affect production of the 2027 crop. Slower shipments are leading to grain accumulation on the domestic market, putting additional pressure on prices and farmers’ revenues, according to the Institute of Agrarian Economics.

Accumulating unsold grain reduces farmers’ working capital and could make it more difficult to finance the next planting campaign. Small and medium-sized farms are particularly vulnerable, as timely crop sales remain one of their key sources of financing for future production.

Ukraine formally has sufficient storage capacity, estimated at around 100 mln tons at any one time. However, the key issue is the speed of grain turnover: when exports slow, storage facilities remain occupied for longer, making it more difficult to accommodate the new crop.

Alternative routes can partly offset restrictions on seaborne exports but significantly increase costs. Grain transportation to the Romanian port of Constanta is estimated at $60–70/t, while shipments to Gdansk in Poland could cost $82–85/t. Overall, agricultural logistics costs could increase by 1.5–2 times if port disruptions persist.

To reduce these risks, Ukraine needs to restore and protect seaborne exports while expanding the capacity of alternative routes. Priorities include the Danube corridor, the port of Constanta, and western rail and road routes to reduce the grain sector’s dependence on any single export channel.

Tags: Ukraine, export, agricultural products, crop forecast