Global wheat trade slows amid weak demand and expectations of further price declines

Global wheat trade activity slowed in early November 2026 amid weak demand from importers and intensifying competition among exporters. Buyers are postponing new contracts in anticipation of further price declines, while restrictions on maritime transportation in the Black Sea region continue to limit grain supplies. This was highlighted in a recent S&P Global market report.

In October, the average price of Black Sea milling wheat assessed by Platts stood at $202.59/t FOB, compared with $211.73/t in September. This represents a monthly decline of $9.14/t, or approximately 4.3%. Prices are falling despite reduced export shipments from the Black Sea region, as cautious buying behavior continues to put pressure on the market.

Demand has weakened particularly noticeably in Egypt, one of the key destinations in global wheat trade. As of November 2, the price of wheat with 12.5% protein on a CIF basis in the Eastern Mediterranean fell by $12/t week-on-week to $306/t. Egyptian importers are holding back from new purchases, expecting grain prices to decline further.

An additional factor restraining purchases has been the depreciation of the Egyptian pound to a record low of around 56 pounds per US dollar, increasing the cost of imported products for local buyers. Some importers have already covered their immediate requirements and are awaiting previously contracted shipments. Market participants describe current trading activity as extremely subdued, with buyers waiting for clearer signals on future price movements.

Competition among suppliers also remains strong in the European market. Meanwhile, demand for Romanian and Bulgarian wheat is being constrained by quality concerns affecting certain grain shipments and shipping risks in the Black Sea. Traders warn that exportable grain supplies from these countries could tighten toward the end of the marketing year, potentially affecting the regional supply balance.

Future global wheat price movements will depend on purchasing activity among major importers, competition between exporters and developments in maritime logistics. Despite limited shipments from the Black Sea region, expectations of cheaper grain continue to dominate market sentiment and discourage new deals. A recovery in buying activity or changes in the availability of export routes could significantly influence prices in the coming weeks.

Tags: Black Sea region, wheat, prices