Global wheat prices may keep rising through at least the end of the year

Global wheat prices may remain under upward pressure through at least the end of 2026 due to reduced supplies from the Black Sea region and the need for major importers to replenish stocks. Buyers in Asia, the Middle East and Africa have delayed alternative purchases in recent months, but available inventories are gradually declining.

Restrictions on Black Sea supplies have already had a significant impact on the market. Chicago wheat futures have risen by around 40% from June lows and reached their highest level in three and a half years.

According to Kpler estimates, Russia’s wheat exports in September may total around 1 mln tons, compared with 5 mln tons a year earlier. Ukraine is also expected to export around 1 mln tons, half the volume shipped in September last year.

Asia is feeling the supply squeeze most acutely. Indonesia received only around 60 thsd tons of wheat from the Black Sea region in September, compared with 500 thsd tons a year earlier, and is already shifting purchases toward Australia and Argentina. Australian wheat is costing importers around 20–25% more than Black Sea cargoes did before logistics disruptions intensified.

Competition for available wheat supplies is expected to strengthen through the end of the year, when new-crop shipments from the Southern Hemisphere begin to increase. As stocks decline, importers will be forced to return more actively to the market, which could keep global wheat prices elevated.

Tags: prices, wheat, global market