Global wheat prices could rise 18–24% in 2027 if Black Sea ports remain closed

Global wheat prices could rise by 18–24% in 2027 if Black Sea ports in Ukraine and russia remain closed to grain exports, according to Dennis Voznesenski, an economist at Commonwealth Bank of Australia. He believes that the operation of Black Sea ports will be the single most important factor influencing global grain markets next year. If shipping resumes in early 2027, wheat prices could remain broadly at current levels. However, under a prolonged port closure scenario, Ukraine and russia would retain only around 60% of their export capacity compared with the period before July 2026.

Additional pressure on global markets is coming from lower wheat production among major exporters outside the Black Sea region. According to the bank, their combined wheat harvest in 2026 is expected to decline by 13% year-on-year, limiting their ability to offset reduced shipments from Ukraine and russia. Meanwhile, US farmers are planning to expand winter wheat planting, while acreage is expected to decline in Europe, Ukraine and russia. Drought developing in russia’s major southern grain-producing regions poses another risk.

Continued restrictions on Black Sea exports could also significantly affect the global barley market. Current feed barley prices are in line with Commonwealth Bank of Australia’s base-case scenario, which assumes that ports will reopen in early 2027. If restrictions remain in place, feed barley prices could rise substantially. Analysts also expect the premium for malting barley over feed barley to increase due to quality problems affecting this year’s harvests in Canada and Europe.

Commonwealth Bank of Australia also expects rapeseed prices to remain relatively high over the next 12 months. Average prices are likely to exceed levels recorded since the beginning of 2026, supported by high crude oil prices and steady demand for biofuel feedstocks. The bank forecasts global rapeseed stocks to decline by 7.3% to 10.1 mln tons in the 2026/27 marketing year. Meanwhile, despite a more than 50% decline in Ukrainian wheat exports, rapeseed shipments, including the seed equivalent of exported rapeseed oil, have increased since Black Sea ports were closed.

Geopolitical risks remain an additional source of uncertainty for agricultural markets, particularly the course of the war between russia and Ukraine and the conflict between the United States and Iran. According to Voznesenski, political decisions will continue to have a significant impact on grain, oilseed, energy and fertilizer prices in 2027. A potential easing of these conflicts could reduce farmers’ fuel and fertilizer costs, while continued transport restrictions in the Black Sea would increase the risk of tighter exportable grain supplies and further global price increases.

Tags: Black Sea region, wheat, rapeseed, global market