Global vegetable oil prices rise to 2022 levels

Global vegetable oil prices have climbed back to 2022 levels amid escalating tensions in the Middle East, according to a forecast by the World Bank.

The surge is largely driven by the effective disruption of shipments through the Strait of Hormuz due to the conflict escalation, which has halted the flow of key commodities and increased pressure on global agricultural markets. Higher freight rates and rising insurance premiums for shipping have also directly contributed to the price increase.

In March, the average price of sunflower oil rose by 1.3% month-on-month to $1,465 per tonne, the highest level since August 2022. Rapeseed oil increased by 2.2% to $1,303.9 per tonne (the highest since November 2022), while soybean oil jumped by 15.6% to $1,481.97 per tonne. Coconut oil prices also rose by 4.2%, reaching $2,360.3 per tonne.

Analysts note that the upward trend had already been forming in 2025, when all major vegetable oils posted price gains compared to 2024. Sunflower oil showed the strongest increase, up 20% on average, while palm oil rose by about 8% amid growing global production and delays in expanding biodiesel mandates in Indonesia.

The current market environment points to continued high volatility in the agricultural sector. Future price dynamics will depend on the stability of supply through key maritime routes and on crop outlooks in major exporting countries such as Argentina, Brazil, and the Black Sea region. If tensions persist, experts do not rule out further price increases and new multi-year highs.