Global rapeseed production could hit a record in 2026/27

Global rapeseed production could reach an all-time high of 98.09 mln tons in MY 2026/27, up 2.41 mln tons from the previous season. According to USDA forecasts, production is expected to increase in most major producing countries, with declines projected only in the EU and Australia. Global rapeseed oil production could also reach a record 37.6 mln tons, up 1.26 mln tons year-on-year.

Canada is expected to be one of the main drivers of higher global supply. The country’s canola yield forecast has been raised from 2.19 to 2.3 t/ha, while production is now projected at 21.6 mln tons, up from an earlier estimate of 19.2 mln tons. Planted area reached a record 9.49 mln ha, up 8.4% year-on-year, while favorable summer conditions leave room for a further upward revision to the crop forecast.

Meanwhile, the outlook for Australia remains more challenging. Due to a reduction in planted area, below-normal rainfall and high fertilizer costs, rapeseed production is forecast at 6.18 mln tons, almost 20% below last year. September will be a key period in determining final crop yields.

Despite prospects for record global supply, rapeseed and rapeseed oil prices remain high. The market continues to receive support from weather risks, geopolitical tensions and strong demand from the biofuel sector. Canada’s rapeseed crush is forecast at 13.7 mln tons in MY 2026/27, while rapeseed oil exports could reach a record 4 mln tons.

Market conditions could change in the fourth quarter as the new Canadian crop enters the market. Rising export availability may increase pressure on prices toward the end of the year. At the same time, weather and geopolitical risks are expected to keep the market volatile, with significant price fluctuations but limited potential for a sustained rally.

Tags: rapeseed, global market