Global pork production will increase by 1% in 2026

Global production in 2026 is forecast to increase by 1% to 120.2 million tonnes, as increased production in the United States, Brazil, China, and Canada offsets lower output in the European Union. Brazilian pork production is forecast to increase by 3% to 4.9 million tonnes, as ample feed supplies and strong international demand support sector growth.

Chinese pork production is forecast to increase modestly to 59.5 million tonnes, as increased litter sizes are expected to lead to increased slaughter, albeit at slightly lower weights given the sector’s pressure to reduce production. Canadian pork production is forecast to increase by 2% to 2.2 million tonnes, as a modest increase in sow numbers and a steady increase in litter sizes will increase the number of animals available for slaughter.

EU pork production is forecast to decline by 1% to 21.7 million tonnes, reflecting reduced profitability and ample EU pork inventories. Lower EU pork prices by the end of 2025, partly driven by tariffs on pork exports to China and the detection of African swine fever (ASF) in Spain, will likely put pressure on the EU to reduce pig herds. Global exports are forecast to remain virtually unchanged at 10.4 million tonnes, as increased supplies from Brazil, the United States, and Canada offset lower exports from the European Union.

Brazil’s exports are forecast to increase by 7%, driven by improved market access and strong price competitiveness relative to other major exporters. Exports from Canada are forecast to increase by 4%, driven by increased export inventories and government efforts to expand market access. EU exports are forecast to decline by 8% due to declining export inventories and disease-related trade restrictions. US Production and Exports: US pork production is forecast to increase by 1% year-on-year to 12.7 million tonnes, as continued growth in litter sizes will allow for increased slaughter volumes in 2026, despite a decline in the sow herd. Stable feed prices and relatively high pig prices should support increased pig weights in 2026.

US exports are forecast to grow by 3% in 2026, driven by strong demand in Mexico and Central America. Furthermore, the expected decline in EU exports should provide opportunities for US export expansion to key Asian markets.

Tags: pork