Global phosphate fertilizer production could fall to 45 mln tons amid sulfur shortage

Global phosphate fertilizer production could reach just 45 mln tons in 2026 against typical annual demand of around 75 mln tons due to a shortage and sharp rise in sulfur prices. Ben Pratt, vice president of US-based Mosaic, made the statement in an interview with Farm Journal, according to Fertilizer Daily. He warned that limited sulfur availability, a key raw material in phosphate fertilizer production, poses risks of not only further price increases but also physical shortages in certain markets.

According to Pratt, sulfur prices have generally ranged between $100 and $300/t over the past 15 years but have now exceeded $1,000/t. Mosaic uses approximately 0.4 tons of sulfur to produce one ton of phosphate fertilizers. The sharp increase in raw material costs is significantly raising production expenses and forcing manufacturers to reconsider output levels.

Josh Linville, vice president of fertilizer markets at StoneX, noted that approximately half of global sulfur supplies pass through the Strait of Hormuz, while Russia accounts for another 17% of global supply. He expects fertilizer prices to remain elevated until spring 2027, even if shipping through the Strait of Hormuz returns to normal. Meanwhile, weaker demand would not necessarily improve fertilizer availability, as producers could reduce capacity utilization due to lower profitability.

According to researchers at the University of Illinois, US diammonium phosphate (DAP) prices have risen from around $700/t at the beginning of 2026 to approximately $850/t. Amid difficulties securing raw materials, Mosaic has already suspended operations at its South Fort Meade facility. Meanwhile, China’s phosphate fertilizer exports have fallen to almost zero this year, further restricting supply on the international market.

Mosaic warns that a prolonged sulfur shortage could lead to further reductions in phosphate fertilizer production and limit availability for farmers. Higher fertilizer prices increase crop production costs, while shortages could complicate planting campaigns. Further market developments will largely depend on the restoration of stable sulfur supplies and fertilizer plant capacity utilization.

Tags: fertilizers, global market, phosphate fertilizer