Global mineral fertilizer prices may decline amid weak demand and high stocks

The global mineral fertilizer market is showing signs of stabilization in late October 2026 following earlier price increases. According to BINFIELD analysts, buying activity is gradually slowing, while high inventories and rising supplies in certain segments are creating conditions for potential price declines. Meanwhile, geopolitical risks, logistics constraints, and seasonal demand fluctuations continue to influence the market.

In the nitrogen fertilizer segment, buyers have become more cautious due to high urea prices and expectations of a new import tender in India. Demand from Europe and Brazil remains stable, although purchasing activity has slowed. Rising urea exports from China are adding further pressure on prices. Meanwhile, the ammonium sulfate market remains relatively balanced, supported by stable supplies from China and demand from Brazil.

The phosphate fertilizer market is showing mixed price trends. Diammonium phosphate (DAP) prices are gradually declining due to weak demand and sufficient stocks in India and Pakistan, while monoammonium phosphate (MAP) prices remain more resilient. Buyers in South Asia are postponing new purchases in anticipation of more favorable prices. Meanwhile, a correction in sulfur prices following a sharp increase in the third quarter could reduce phosphate fertilizer production costs.

Potash fertilizer prices remain relatively stable, although high inventories in China and subdued demand are increasing downside risks. Indonesia continues to purchase muriate of potash (MOP), while the return of Belarusian products to the US market is expanding supply. At the same time, logistics constraints in Europe and Russia are partially limiting price declines.

Future trends in the global fertilizer market will depend on purchasing activity among major importers, production volumes, and logistics conditions. China’s negotiations over 2027 potash contracts will be particularly important in setting new price benchmarks. According to BINFIELD, high inventories and cautious demand currently provide little support for a sustained increase in mineral fertilizer prices.

Tags: prices, fertilizers