Global importers are bracing for a wheat shortage due to supply issues from the Black Sea

Global wheat buyers are bracing for tighter supplies as escalating attacks on port infrastructure and vessels in the Black Sea disrupt shipments. Delays and cancellations of cargoes from Ukraine and Russia are already forcing importers to seek alternative suppliers, while Chicago wheat futures have risen by more than 17% since the beginning of July, Reuters reports.

Asian countries that actively booked new-crop Black Sea grain are particularly vulnerable. According to traders, Asian processors contracted around 2–2.5 mln tons of Black Sea wheat for July-September arrival, equivalent to roughly 30–50% of their import demand. Some of these cargoes may now fail to arrive on time, prompting buyers to consider supplies from Australia, North America, Argentina, Romania and Bulgaria.

Egypt and Indonesia are among the buyers most exposed to Black Sea disruptions. In the first half of 2026, more than 82% of Egypt’s wheat imports came from Ukraine and Russia, while Indonesia contracted around 600 thsd tons from former Soviet grain exporters for July-September shipment. Risks are also rising for Algeria, Bangladesh, Jordan, Thailand, Tunisia and Vietnam. Jordan has already cancelled several wheat and barley tenders this month amid high prices and shipping risks.

Replacing Black Sea wheat will be considerably more expensive. Australian Premium White wheat delivered to Asia is quoted at around $315–320/t, while the cheapest U.S. wheat is priced at about $305/t, compared with roughly $260–280/t for Black Sea cargoes. This means switching origins could add around $25–60/t to wheat costs for Asian buyers.

The situation could become particularly acute by the end of August, when importers will have to decide how to replace delayed Black Sea cargoes. Market participants say fewer shipowners are willing to call at Ukrainian and Russian ports, while further supply disruptions could intensify competition for wheat from alternative origins and support global prices during the peak new-crop export season.

Tags: global market, Ukraine, wheat, Black Sea, imports