Global grain production in 2026 to be second highest on record — FAO

Global grain production in 2026 is forecast at 2.979 bln tons, the second-highest level on record. However, output is expected to decline by 61.1 mln tons, or 2%, from the previous year, according to the UN Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO).

The expected decline would be the largest annual drop in global grain production since 2018. One of the main reasons for the lower forecast is a downward revision to corn production. Global corn output is now estimated at 1.309 bln tons, 0.6% below the June forecast.

Global grain consumption in the 2026/27 season is forecast at 2.965 bln tons, up 0.2% from the previous season. Despite the decline in production, global grain supply therefore remains close to record levels.

FAO also raised its forecast for global grain trade in the current season by 0.3% to 509.3 mln tons. International trade is expected to remain strong amid uneven production and the need for some countries to offset domestic grain shortages through imports.

Meanwhile, the forecast for global grain stocks at the end of the 2026/27 season was lowered by 10.7 mln tons, or 1.1%, from the July estimate to 947.2 mln tons. This would be only 1.8 mln tons, or 0.2%, above the level at the beginning of the season, indicating broadly stable global inventories.

Tags: crop forecast, wheat