Global flour trade set to hit four-year low — IGC

Global trade in wheat flour is expected to fall to a four-year low in the 2025/26 marketing year. According to the International Grains Council (IGC), trade volumes are forecast at around 16 million tonnes (wheat equivalent), down 3% from last year, marking the second consecutive annual decline.

The drop is mainly driven by reduced imports from Sudan and Iraq. In Sudan, the resumption of local milling operations has shifted demand from flour to wheat, causing imports to fall from 1.4 million tonnes to around 400,000 tonnes. Iraq is also cutting imports by 500,000 tonnes to a total of 700,000 tonnes, potentially the lowest level in nearly two decades.

The decline is also linked to expanding domestic milling capacity, supportive government policies, and increased local grain production. Additional risks include potential disruptions in logistics across the Persian Gulf region, which could affect future trade flows.

At the same time, imports are expected to rise in several countries. Afghanistan may increase purchases to 3.8 million tonnes, while Syria could import a record 1 million tonnes due to domestic milling challenges. Demand is also projected to grow in parts of Africa and Latin America, partially offsetting the overall decline.

Among exporters, Egypt’s shipments are forecast to fall to 600,000 tonnes, while Turkey is expected to increase exports to 4.1 million tonnes, though still below recent averages. For the 2026/27 season, the IGC anticipates a modest recovery in global flour trade to 16.2 million tonnes, with future trends depending on import demand, government policies, and security conditions in key importing countries.

Tags: flour