Global corn market enters new season with declining stocks

The global corn market could face a tighter supply-demand balance in 2026/27. Declining stocks in the US and a deteriorating crop outlook in Europe are reducing the global market’s buffer and could increase price volatility throughout the season.

In the US, the world’s largest corn producer, ending stocks for 2026/27 are forecast at 1.653 bln bushels. At the same time, domestic use is expected to reach 16.33 bln bushels, adding further pressure to the US balance.

In Europe, heat and insufficient moisture have damaged crop prospects. According to COCERAL, corn production in the EU and the UK could decline to 52.7 mln tons from 57.4 mln tons in the previous season, a decrease of 4.7 mln tons.

Brazil remains another potential risk factor, as producers continue to face high production costs. With the global balance already tight, any deterioration in crop or export prospects among major suppliers could quickly affect corn availability on the international market.

The market is already beginning to price in the risk of tighter supplies from major producers and exporters. With only a narrow margin between global production and consumption, further stock declines could leave corn prices particularly sensitive to weather risks, changes in yields and supply disruptions.

Tags: corn, Brazil, EU, USA, stocks, crop forecast