Geopolitics of wheat

The geopolitics of wheat has become increasingly strategic, and international trade in this essential commodity must be considered in terms of both geo-economics and diplomacy.

Firstly, wheat production is highly unevenly distributed across the planet. Major wheat production areas are found in North America, India, China, Europe, along the shores of the Black Sea, Siberia, Australia, and Argentina. Although wheat is cultivated in nearly 120 countries, 80% of its production comes from just 15 of them.

Moreover, many countries are heavily dependent on imports to feed their populations. This is particularly true for North African and Middle Eastern countries, where water scarcity and limited arable land, combined with rapid population growth, create extreme vulnerability. When wheat becomes scarce, it can destabilize economies and societies in these nations.

Globally, 800 million tons of wheat are produced, but only 200 million tons are traded on the international market, with 30% of that trade being handled by Russia and Ukraine. In less than two decades, Russia has surpassed all other exporters, significantly altering the geopolitics of wheat. Indeed, raw materials and agricultural development have played a crucial role in Russia’s recovery, as envisioned by Vladimir Putin since the early 2000s.

Russian wheat production from 2000 to 2021 has surpassed that of the United States, and the country exports 30% of its harvest.

This position in the grains market has allowed Moscow to forge new alliances worldwide and penetrate new markets. Ten African countries now depend on Russia for over 50% of their wheat imports. When we combine Russian and Ukrainian wheat exports, 16 countries rely on these nations for more than 50% of their imports and thus their food security. One of the most concerning cases is Lebanon, which has only one month’s worth of wheat reserves.

After the start of the war in Ukraine, wheat prices reached €400 per ton in March 2022, an unsustainable historical record for many importing countries, with severe repercussions on their food security.

Feeding a growing population in a context of scarce resources and shifting economic power dynamics is one of the most complex challenges of the 21st century. Wheat exemplifies how a food commodity influences geopolitics and power relations among states. Faced with socio-demographic dynamics and territorial disparities, the strategies of major importing and exporting countries assert the strategic nature of agriculture.

Tags: Australia, Ukraine, China, exports, harvest, prices, United States, Europe, Production, wheat, India, North America, Argentina, food security, geopolitics, Siberia