Fuel crisis and export logistics disruption threaten Russia’s autumn sowing campaign

The fuel crisis and restrictions on grain exports through the Sea of Azov are beginning to affect not only Russia’s current harvest campaign but also preparations for the autumn sowing season. Russian farmers increasingly warn that soaring production costs, difficulties in selling grain, and a lack of working capital could force them to reduce winter crop acreage this autumn.

According to Reuters, farms in southern Russia are facing an acute diesel shortage, with workers spending hours waiting at filling stations. At the same time, restrictions on navigation in the Sea of Azov—one of the main export routes for grain from the Rostov region—have brought grain purchasing almost to a standstill. Farmers say sales of wheat and barley have effectively halted, depriving them of much-needed cash flow during the most critical period of the season.

Andrey Sizov, head of the SovEcon consultancy, estimates that higher diesel prices alone have increased production costs by about 1,000 rubles per ton of grain, while export disruptions are placing even greater financial pressure on farms. In his view, the deteriorating financial situation could encourage growers to continue reducing grain acreage, extending a trend that has been evident since 2022.

Farmers themselves admit that liquidity, rather than crop yields, has become their biggest concern. Difficulties in marketing grain have forced many producers to postpone machinery purchases, cut investment plans, and question whether they will be able to fully finance this autumn’s sowing campaign. As they put it, they have grain to sell but very limited opportunities to do so profitably.

If farmers’ financial difficulties are not resolved in the coming months, winter wheat acreage could shrink as early as the autumn of 2026, creating one of the main risks for Russia’s 2027 harvest. In the longer term, this could also weaken the country’s export potential, lead to the loss of part of its overseas markets, and undermine its position in the global grain trade.

Tags: Russia, export, wheat, margin