France raises wheat harvest forecast but expects corn production to decline

France’s agriculture ministry has increased its forecast for this year’s soft wheat harvest, confirming a significant rebound from last year, but anticipates a reduction in maize production due to the impact of hot and dry weather on yields.

For soft wheat, France’s main cereal crop, the ministry estimated the harvest at 33.1 mln tons, surpassing last month’s initial forecast of 32.6 mln tons. This is 29% higher than the 2024 volume, which was the lowest since the 1980s due to heavy rainfall, and 4% above the five-year average. Despite some stress from heat and drought, wheat harvesting, which is nearing completion, has shown good yields.

The ministry also raised its production forecasts for barley to 12.0 mln tons (up from 11.8 mln tons last month) and rapeseed to 4.5 mln tons (up from 4.2 mln tons). These figures also exceed 2024 levels and the five-year averages. However, the first estimate for this year’s grain maize crop, including seed crops, projects a 5.6% decline compared to last year, reaching 13.9 mln tons.

The expected decline in maize yields is attributed to mixed field conditions caused by drought and high temperatures this season, which increased planting areas could not offset, according to the ministry. Traders are now monitoring the potential impact of a new heatwave in southern France, where temperatures are forecast to reach nearly 40 degrees Celsius in the coming days.

Tags: corn, France, wheat, crop forecast