France makes only minor cuts to grain and rapeseed crop forecasts despite intense heat

France’s Ministry of Agriculture has made only slight revisions to its 2026 crop production forecast despite an extended period of extreme heat. The updated outlook includes a modest reduction in grain production estimates, while the rapeseed forecast remains unchanged, providing support to European grain prices.

According to the revised forecast, French soft wheat production is expected to reach 32 million tonnes, down 4% from last year and 2% below the five-year average. Barley production is projected at 11.1 million tonnes, a decline of 6.3% year-on-year. The lower production outlook has already contributed to higher prices on both spot and futures markets.

Meanwhile, the rapeseed crop forecast has been maintained at 4.63 million tonnes, unchanged from last year. This is expected to ensure stable feedstock supplies for crushers, while a balanced supply-and-demand outlook should help limit price volatility in the rapeseed market.

In neighbouring Germany, the impact of the heatwave has been more pronounced. The country’s 2026 grain production forecast has been cut by 5.6%, while the rapeseed crop estimate has been left unchanged at 4 million tonnes, slightly above last year’s level.

According to FranceAgriMer, harvesting in France is progressing well ahead of the five-year average. As of July 13, soft wheat had been harvested on 92% of the area, durum wheat on 99%, winter barley on 100%, and spring barley on 90%. Corn remains the main concern, however, as crops have been severely affected by heat and moisture deficits, with the share of fields rated in good or excellent condition falling from 47% to 41% in one week, compared with 72% a year earlier.

Tags: France, wheat, drought, rapeseed, crop forecast