France cuts soft wheat crop estimate, raises maize forecast

France’s farm ministry on Tuesday again lowered its estimate of the country’s 2024 soft wheat output, now expected 27% below last year’s volume, making it one of the worst harvests in the past 40 years in the European Union’s largest grain grower.

Wet weather since last autumn in France has delayed plantings, hurt plant development and increased crop disease, prompting observers to regularly cut their grain crop estimates.

The ministry lowered its estimate of the 2024 soft wheat crop to 25.78 million metric tons from 26.32 million last month and the lowest volume since 1986.

The estimate is now in line with French analysts who have pegged the harvest between 25-26 million tonnes.

For barley, the ministry cut this year’s output to 10.05 million tonnes versus 10.40 million estimated last month, now 18% below last year. Of this, winter barley output was expected to fall 28% to 7.0 million tons while spring barley would rise 18% to 3.05 million.

For grain maize, harvesting of which is about to get under way, the ministry raised its projection on 2024’s output, including crop grown for seeds, to 14.39 million tonnes from an initial forecast of 14.01 million last month.

That is 11% above last year’s crop, as farmers turned to maize, a spring crop, after soggy fields prompted farmers to delay or renew their plantings.

In the first production forecast for this year’s sugar beet crop, the ministry pegged output at 34.38 million tonnes, up 8.4% from 31.73 million in 2023.

The 2024 rapeseed production was pegged at 3.95 million tonnes, slightly above 3.94 million estimated last month but nearly 8% below last year’s level.

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