France could lose its wheat export surplus within 10 years

France could lose its capacity to export significant volumes of wheat to the global market within the next ten years if the downward trend in production continues, French grain growers’ association AGPB warned. The country harvested 31.9 mln tons of soft wheat in 2026, down 4% from the previous year.

French wheat production has been gradually declining since the record harvest of around 41 mln tons in 2015. According to AGPB, if the current trend continues, the country could lose another 6 mln tons of soft wheat production by 2036.

This volume roughly corresponds to France’s expected wheat surplus available for exports outside the EU this season. A further decline in production could therefore effectively eliminate the country’s current export surplus and reduce its role in the global wheat market.

AGPB attributes the negative trend to a hotter and drier climate, which is weighing on yields, as well as a reduction in grain acreage due to poor profitability. French grain farmers are expected to post negative income for a fourth consecutive year in 2026, as recovering grain prices are partly offset by rising fertilizer costs.

Against this backdrop, French growers also oppose an expansion of the EU import quota for Ukrainian wheat. AGPB fears that higher imports could put additional pressure on European market prices and further weaken the economics of grain production in France.

Tags: wheat, wheat export, AGPB, export, France