Forward rapeseed prices in Ukraine are falling following world quotes

The sharp drop in crude oil prices and the end of the canola planting season in Canada have caused a significant drop in rapeseed quotes in Paris and canola in Winnipeg, forcing Ukrainian traders to reconsider forward prices for new crop rapeseed. Over the past week, forward prices in Ukraine have decreased by $25–30/t.

August Brent crude futures have lost 16.5% of their value in the past seven days, falling to $79/barrel, their lowest level in 3.5 months. Prices are now only 14.5% above pre-war levels. The main reason for the decline was the news of a ceasefire agreement between the US and Iran.

Amid the rapid decline in oil prices, biofuel producers are reducing purchases of vegetable oils, primarily rapeseed oil in the European Union. This is increasing pressure on the rapeseed market, while an additional negative factor is the decline in soybean oil prices in the United States.

August rapeseed futures on the Euronext Paris exchange have fallen by 3.4% over the past seven days to €507.5/t or $598/t, although they reached their highest level since May 2024 of €533.75/t in early June. Favorable weather conditions in the EU, Ukraine, Canada and Australia continue to improve harvest prospects, so with the disappearance of speculative support from the oil market, rapeseed quotes continue to adjust downwards.

July canola futures on the ICE exchange in Winnipeg lost 1.6% for the week to 749 CAD/t or $535/t. The two-week drop was 5.2%, although the monthly quotations are still 1.2% higher. At the same time, November canola contracts continue to trade about $5/t more expensive than July ones, indicating expectations of more active demand in the new season.

According to Statistics Canada, canola exports from Canada in April amounted to 0.78 million tonnes, compared to 1.01 million tonnes in March and 0.92 million tonnes in April last year. The figure also turned out to be lower than the expectations of traders, who had predicted shipments of at least 1 million tonnes.

Since the beginning of the 2025/26 MY, Canada has exported 6.06 million tonnes of canola, compared to 7.68 million tonnes for the same period in the 2024/25 season. The main destinations of supply were the EU — 1.52 (1.04) million tonnes, China — 1.15 (4.12) million tonnes and Japan — 1.19 (1.30) million tonnes.

In Ukraine, after reaching levels of $610–615/t (at 44% oil content) in early June, forward prices for new crop rapeseed have decreased to $570–580/t with delivery to Black Sea ports over the past week.

Weather conditions in Ukraine and the EU remain favorable for the development of rapeseed crops. Moderate temperatures and regular precipitation support a high potential for the future harvest.

Despite the price correction, Ukrainian farmers are not yet in a hurry to actively sell rapeseed under forward contracts. Producers expect active competition between exporters and domestic processors, who continue to increase the volume of crop processing.

In the MY 2025/26, the volume of rapeseed processing in Ukraine reached 1.6–1.7 million tons, practically equaling exports at 1.8 million tons. This is almost three times more than in the previous season, which was a consequence of the introduction of a 10% duty on rapeseed exports and the complication of export procedures at the beginning of the season.

At the same time, the situation may change in the new season. Producers have already gained practical experience with duty-free exports, and the Ministry of Economy has simplified the procedure for confirming farmers’ right to preferential exports. As a result, it is expected that rapeseed export activity will resume from the beginning of the season, which may contribute to strengthening domestic prices after the start of the new marketing year.

Tags: prices, rapeseed