Forecast of large Black Sea wheat crops to limit global price growth

Expected strong wheat harvests across the Black Sea region are likely to prevent a significant rise in global grain prices during the summer of 2026. According to the U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA), Russia is projected to produce 88 million tonnes of wheat in the 2026/27 season, while Ukraine’s wheat crop is estimated at 23.5 million tonnes.

Favorable weather conditions have been a key factor supporting improved crop prospects in the region. Analysts note that Russia’s wheat harvest could exceed current forecasts and approach 90 million tonnes, only slightly below the record 92 million tonnes harvested in the 2022/23 season. Such production volumes would help offset supply challenges elsewhere and support stability in the global wheat market. Adequate spring rainfall has boosted soil moisture for winter wheat, while satellite data indicate strong crop development across major growing areas.

Ukraine is also benefiting from favorable growing conditions. According to the USDA, May rainfall provided winter wheat crops with sufficient moisture during critical development stages, improving crop conditions and strengthening yield prospects. Winter wheat accounts for the vast majority of the country’s wheat production.

While prospects in the Black Sea region remain strong, the outlook in the United States is considerably weaker. U.S. winter wheat production is forecast at 1.03 billion bushels, which would mark the smallest crop since 1965. Production declines are also expected in Australia and Argentina, two major wheat-exporting countries.

Australia’s wheat harvest is forecast at 28 million tonnes, down 22% from last year, while Argentina’s production is expected to fall 25% to 21 million tonnes. Future weather developments, including the possible emergence of a strong El Niño event, could significantly affect final production outcomes in both countries.

Despite these risks, the global wheat balance remains relatively comfortable. USDA projects world ending wheat stocks at around 275 million tonnes in the 2026/27 season. This indicates adequate supplies and explains why analysts do not currently see strong fundamentals for a major wheat price rally unless serious weather problems emerge in key producing countries.

Tags: Ukraine, Russia, wheat, crop forecast