Forecast for US winter wheat planted area in 2026

The United States has begun planting its 2026 winter wheat crop. According to the US Department of Agriculture (USDA), as of September 7, 5% of the winter wheat area in the 18 major states had been planted, matching last year’s progress but trailing the five-year average by one percentage point. Topsoil moisture conditions are significantly improved in regions growing hard red winter wheat due to recent rainfall, while soft wheat states are experiencing mostly drier conditions compared to the fall of 2024.

Low wheat prices may lead to a reduction in planted areas this year, according to industry sources consulted by Sosland Publishing Co. Bill Lapp, president of Advanced Economic Solutions in Omaha, Nebraska, predicts that winter wheat acreage will remain flat or decline by 2% compared to last year’s planting. Farmers may sow wheat for insurance purposes or to maintain base acres for government programs, but they are not planting with market prices in mind due to low returns across all crops. Lapp noted that if farmers must choose between winter wheat and corn next spring, they are likely to favor corn due to its higher price upside potential.

As of mid-September, Kansas City hard red winter wheat futures were down approximately 75¢ to $1 per bushel compared to a year ago, and Chicago soft red winter wheat futures dropped by about 75¢ per bushel. While higher basis levels partially offset the lower futures prices, weak market prospects may discourage farmers from expanding plantings. Meanwhile, the USDA reports that 34% of winter wheat areas are in drought zones, up from 31% the previous week but down from 49% last year, with the worst conditions observed in the Pacific Northwest.

Tags: wheat, USA, sown area