Fertilizer market expects slow recovery – Rabobank

Global fertilizer markets are facing supply shortages, low availability, and price risk. Recovery will be slow, according to a Rabobank report.

“Even if geopolitical tensions ease, normalization will be slow. The forecast for 2026 is for continued pressure on the agricultural economy, with elevated downside risks to global crop production and a threat to food price stability,” the report notes.

Global fertilizer markets closed the first quarter of 2026 under severe strain. Escalating geopolitical instability in the Middle East and the effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz have reduced fertilizer and critical resource volumes in the global market, causing a sharp supply shock that cannot be quickly offset, experts note.

“The market environment is characterized by supply shortages, sharp price increases, and increased volatility of key nutrients,” the report adds.

Fertilizer availability has rapidly deteriorated. Nitrogen and phosphate prices have risen much faster than agricultural commodity prices, squeezing farmer margins and accelerating availability stress.

The Raboresearch Fertilizer Availability Index has sharply shifted into negative territory and is expected to remain negative through the end of 2026, with only a limited recovery in the second half of the year. This increases the risk of a widespread decline in demand as farmers reduce fertilizer application rates, defer purchases, or change crop choices, Rabobank explains.

The nitrogen and phosphate fertilizer markets are the most vulnerable. Potash remains more balanced, but the indirect effects of low availability of other nutrients are expected to have a moderate impact on demand in 2026.

Overall, the fertilizer market faces a prolonged period of supply shortages, low availability, and elevated price risk, Rabobank analysts emphasized.

Tags: prices, fertilizers