February rains support Argentina’s soybean crop

Timely February rainfall helped stabilize soybean crop conditions in Argentina following a dry January. In its latest report, the Foreign Agricultural Service of the US Department of Agriculture maintained its 2025/26 soybean production forecast for Argentina at 48 million tonnes.

Analysts noted that part of the second soybean crop was affected by the January dry spell, which coincided with a critical stage of crop development. However, February precipitation is expected to mitigate part of the productivity losses, though not fully offset the impact of the earlier drought.

If realized, the 48 million tonne crop would represent a 5% decline from the 51.1 million tonnes harvested in 2024/25. Nevertheless, it would still rank as the fourth largest soybean crop in the past decade.

The FAS also left its soybean crush estimate unchanged at 43 million tonnes for 2025/26, up 1 million tonnes year on year. Lower whole soybean exports to China are expected to allow for greater domestic processing as trade flows gradually return to more traditional patterns.

At the same time, Argentina’s soybean export forecast was reduced by 500,000 tonnes due to the anticipated decline in shipments to China. Projected soybean imports were also lowered by 200,000 tonnes to 7 million tonnes, which would still be the second-highest level on record. Despite the improved moisture outlook, low prices, high logistics costs, and elevated input expenses continue to weigh on farmer sales.

Tags: soybean, crop condition, Argentina