Favorable rainfall in the US corn belt and a new heat wave in Europe remain the main factors influencing markets

The main agricultural regions of the US are experiencing very favorable weather conditions for late crops, and although high temperatures were observed there last week, most of the territory received showers, which reduced stress for plants.

Heavy, prolonged rains are expected in the Midwest and Plains next week, which will lower temperatures and continue to improve the condition of corn and soybean crops. Analysts are already raising their U.S. crop forecasts, so we expect an adjustment to the USDA forecast this week.

The Southern Plains have been experiencing drier and hotter weather, so the forecast rainfall may only marginally improve crop conditions, although the Central and Northern Plains are receiving enough rainfall to support soybeans and corn.

The southwestern Canadian prairies were extremely dry and hot last week, but good rainfall is expected this week in all major growing areas, which will lower temperatures and help the crops to fill.

Heavy rains hit northern and central Argentina last week, and additional rainfall is expected this week, which will help the winter wheat crop develop.

In Central and Eastern Europe, high temperatures without significant precipitation last week have added stress to corn crops, which are in the filling stage and have already experienced several heat waves. In Western Europe, the weather has been drier and cooler. This week, a new heat wave of 32-35 degrees is forecast for most of Europe, which will continue to improve conditions for corn, soybeans, sugar beet and sunflower. Rain and a drop in temperatures are expected towards the end of the week, but not all regions will receive sufficient precipitation.

In western and central Ukraine, precipitation occurred at the end of last week, which lowered temperatures to normal after a short-term heat of 32-35 degrees at the beginning of the week, so crops were not stressed. No rain is forecast this week, but temperatures will be within normal limits and only slightly above normal in the east.

Rainfall in western Australia and dry weather in the east, which is reducing moisture reserves, are worsening the condition of winter crops ahead of the resumption of vegetation. Drier conditions are becoming more widespread due to the strengthening of El Niño, so we expect a reduction in the country’s harvest potential.

Tags: Canada, Black Sea region, USA, crop condition, Argentina, Australia, corn