FAO identifies regions most vulnerable to the new El Niño

The FAO has warned that a new El Niño episode is highly likely to develop in the coming weeks and is urging countries to prepare their agricultural sectors for its potential impacts. Using 41 years of satellite data, the organization identified areas where El Niño-related drought is most likely to severely affect crops and pasturelands.

The highest risks are concentrated in the Sahel, southern Africa, South and Southeast Asia, as well as Central America and the Caribbean. In these regions, the probability of severe agricultural drought exceeds 50%, threatening crop production, livestock, food security and rural livelihoods.

Asia is expected to be particularly vulnerable, as El Niño could weaken India’s summer monsoon and reduce yields of rain-fed crops such as rice and corn. Elevated drought risks also extend across Pakistan, Myanmar, Thailand, Cambodia, Vietnam, the Philippines, Indonesia and Timor-Leste, raising concerns for global grain and food markets.

According to the FAO, more than 80% of drought-related agricultural losses are expected to occur in low- and middle-income countries, where farming largely depends on rainfall. The organization warns that this El Niño cycle could have a greater impact than previous ones due to the combined effects of climate change, armed conflicts and existing food insecurity.

To reduce potential losses, the FAO and the World Food Programme (WFP) have appealed for $202 mln to finance anticipatory actions in 22 high-risk countries. The funding would support farmers and livestock producers, strengthen early warning systems, and provide timely assistance before drought conditions intensify.

The FAO emphasizes that acting before disasters occur is far more effective than responding after losses have already happened. The new risk maps are intended to help governments identify the most vulnerable agricultural areas and target support where it is needed most.