FAO: Global ag production to increase 14% in next decade

Global production of agricultural and fish commodities is expected to increase by 14% through to 2034, with cereals growing at an average annual rate of 1.1%, according to the OECD-FAO Agricultural Outlook 2025-2034.

Cereal production will be driven by a 0.9% annual increase in yields as the harvested area is only projected to expand by 0.14%, less than half the 0.33% rate of the previous decade.

The outlook serves as a key global reference on medium-term prospects for agricultural and fish markets at national, regional and global levels.

Global cereal production is expected to reach 3.2 billion tonnes by 2034. Wheat production is expected to increase by 74 million tonnes to 874 million tonnes by 2034, of which 42 million tonnes will be in Asia. India, the world’s third largest wheat producer, is expected to provide the largest share of the additional wheat, accounting for 29% of the global production increase, driven by yield improvements and area expansion in response to national policies to improve self-sufficiency.

Global maize (corn) production is expected to grow by 188 million tonnes to 1.4 billion tonnes by 2034, with the largest absolute increases compared to the base period in the United States (33 million tonnes), Brazil (32 million tonnes) and China (27 million tonnes), responding to a rising global demand and favorable domestic policy environments.

Global rice production is expected to grow by 61 million tonnes and reach 598 million tonnes by 2034. Yield improvements in low- and lower-middle income countries are expected to drive this growth. Production expansion in Asian countries, which account for the bulk of global rice output, is expected to be robust. India, the world’s largest rice producer by 2034, will account for 41% of this expansion, followed by the LDC Asian region, Vietnam, Indonesia, the Philippines and Thailand.

Global production of other coarse grains — sorghum, barley, millets, rye, and oats — is projected to reach 330 million tonnes by 2034, up by around 33 million tonnes from the base period.

In real terms, annual cereal prices are expected to decline over the projection period as productivity growth and efficiency gains reduce production costs. However, nominal cereal prices are expected to follow upward trends, due to assumed inflation.

Trade will continue to expand in line with production. The share of production traded will remain slightly above the base period level of 17%. Wheat exports are expected to grow by 21 million tonnes and maize exports by 29 million tonnes.

“Most African and Asian countries — excluding major rice exporters — are expected to remain or become net cereal importers,” the outlook said. “Meanwhile, the Americas and parts of Europe are expected to further strengthen their role as key global suppliers.”

Soybean production is expected to grow by 1% per year, compared to 2.2% per year over the last decade. Yield increases will account for about 80% of that production growth.

The production of other oilseeds (rapeseed, sunflower seed and groundnuts) is projected to grow at a slower pace, at 1.1% per year compared to 2.7% per year over the previous 10 years.

Soybean crush is projected to expand by 62 million tonnes over the outlook period, significantly less than the 95 million tonnes in the previous decade. Most of the growth is expected to occur in Latin America in contrast to the previous decade where the expansion in soybean crush occurred mainly in China.

Global crush of other oilseeds is expected to grow in line with production over the outlook period and to occur more often in the producing country.

More than 40% of world soybean production is traded internationally, and its expansion is closely tied to the growth trend of soybean crush in importing countries, according to the outlook. In China, soybean crush growth is expected to slow down compared to the last decade and Chinese imports are projected to remain rather stable at about 107 million tonnes by 2034 (down from a growth of 3.4% per year in 2015-24), accounting for about 60% of world soybean imports.

Exports of soybeans originate predominately from Brazil and the United States. Brazil is the largest global exporter of soybeans with steady growth in its export capacity and is projected to account for 53% of total global exports of soybean by 2034.

“For other oilseeds, the internationally traded share of global production will decline to about 11% of world production since the two largest producers, China and the European Union, are net-importers,” the outlook said. “The main exporters are Canada, Australia, and Ukraine, which are projected to account for 65% of world exports by 2034.”

Global demand for biofuels is projected to grow at an average annual rate of 0.9%, driven primarily by increases in Brazil, India and Indonesia.

Global ethanol and biomass-based diesel production are projected to increase to 155 billion liters and 80.9 billion liters, respectively, by 2034.

World ethanol trade is projected to increase to 11.9 billion liters from 11 billion liters by 2034, with total share of production decreasing to 8.2% from 8.8% by the end of the projection period. The United States and Brazil are expected to remain the main exporters of maize‑ and sugar cane-based ethanol. The export share of both countries together is expected to increase from 75% today to 79% in 2034. 

Global per capita calorie intake of livestock and fish products will increase by 6% over the next decade, driven largely by a rapid rise in lower-middle-income countries, where growth is anticipated to reach 24%, nearly four times faster than the global average.

By 2034, 40% of all cereals will be consumed directly by humans, while 33% will be used for animal feed. Biofuel production and other industrial uses are projected to account for the rest.

Between 49% and 65% of global cereal consumption is projected to occur in the top five consumer countries for each commodity by 2034, which is clearly less concentrated than production.

India and Southeast Asian countries are projected to account for 39% of global consumption growth by 2034, compared to 32% over the past decade, while China’s share is projected at 13%, down from 32% over the past decade.