FAO forecasts record grain production in 2025/26

FAO’s latest forecast for global cereal production in 2025 has been lifted by almost 14 million tonnes (0.5 percent) in July compared to the previous month, and is now pegged at 2 925 million tonnes. The revised outlook is driven by improved prospects for wheat, maize and rice (in decreasing order of magnitude) and puts the forecast of the global output 2.3 percent above the previous year’s level, marking an all-time high. Global wheat production has been raised by 0.7 percent in July over the previous month’s level, now standing at 805.3 million tonnes in 2025, up 0.9 percent year on year. The monthly increase primarily reflects recent official data from India and Pakistan pointing to better-than-expected yields, with a record output forecast in the former country. Global coarse grain production is also revised marginally higher this month to 1 262 million tonnes, now standing 3.5 percent above the previous year’s level, and remaining the main driver behind global production growth this year. Most of the coarse grains quantity is comprised of maize and the improved prospects this month are driven by stronger maize yields in Brazil and an upgrade to the maize production outlook for India, where robust domestic demand for feed and industrial use is seen encouraging a larger area in 2025 compared to preliminary expectations. These positive revisions more than offset cuts to production forecasts in Ukraine where, in addition to the effects of the conflict, dry-weather conditions are weakening yield prospects, and in the European Union, owing to a minor revision to the area. Expectations of hotter and drier-than-average conditions in the coming months in parts of the northern hemisphere could impact yield potential, particularly for maize with plantings almost complete. As for rice, since June, FAO has raised its forecast of global rice production in 2025/26 by 4.1 million tonnes. The revision largely stems from upward adjustments to 2024/25 and 2025/26 production expectations for India, although crop prospects also improved for Bangladesh, Pakistan, and Viet Nam, in most cases owing to higher area expectations. By contrast, forecasts were downgraded for Iraq and the United States of America. Taking these adjustments into account, FAO now anticipates global rice production in 2025/26 to reach 555.6 million tonnes (milled basis), up 1.0 percent year-on-year and a record high.

The forecast for world cereal utilization in 2025/26 stands at 2 900 million tonnes, up 2.0 million tonnes since June and 0.8 percent higher than in 2024/25. Global coarse grain utilization in 2025/26 has been raised by 4.7 million tonnes, stemming from higher utilization of each major coarse grain (barley, maize and sorghum) than initially expected, bringing the forecast to 1 548 million tonnes, a marginal increase of 0.3 percent above the 2024/25 level. By contrast, world wheat utilization in 2025/26 has been lowered this month, by 4.0 million tonnes, underpinned by downward revisions to the forecast for China (mainland), Morocco, and the United States of America. Despite the downward adjustment, global wheat utilization is still projected to rise by 0.8 percent in 2025/26 from its 2024/25 level. FAO forecasts world rice utilization to reach 550.4 million tonnes in 2025/26, up 1.8 percent from the 2024/25 high, thanks to an expansion in food intake and, to a lesser extent, continued growth in use of rice for ethanol production in India.

FAO’s forecast for world cereal stocks by the close of seasons in 2026 has been raised by 15.5 million tonnes since the previous month to 889.1 million tonnes, pointing to a 2.2 percent rise compared to opening levels. Based on the latest forecasts, the global cereal stocks-to-use ratio would rise from 29.8 percent in 2024/25 to 30.3 percent in 2025/26, indicating sufficient supply prospects in the new season. The increase is linked to wheat, with the forecast for global stocks lifted by 11.0 million tonnes this month. Most of the upward revision is concentrated in Australia, China (mainland), Pakistan, the Russian Federation, and the United States of America. Following this upward revision, global wheat stocks are now expected to rise above their opening levels by 0.9 percent, reaching 321.0 million tonnes. Pegged at 353.6 million tonnes, global coarse grain stocks are lowered marginally (by 0.5 million tonnes) this month, stemming from a downward revision to barley stocks (mostly in Australia, China (mainland), and the Russian Federation), but are still set to increase by 3.6 percent above their opening levels in 2025/26. FAO has raised its forecast of world rice stocks at the close of the 2025/26 marketing seasons by 5.0 million tonnes to a fresh peak of 214.4 million tonnes. Much of this revision reflects prospects of higher reserves in India, consistent with the improved production outlook for the country and despite expectations of record-breaking Indian exports over the season. Carry-over forecasts are also raised for Bangladesh, Ecuador, and Pakistan.

International cereal trade in 2025/26 is expected to increase by 1.2 percent from the 2024/25 level, reaching 486.9 million tonnes, unchanged from the previous forecast. Standing at 226.6 million tonnes, global trade in coarse grains in 2025/26 (July/June) is forecast to decline by 0.6 percent from the 2024/25 level. Accounting for that decline, global maize trade is anticipated to decrease by 1.9 percent in 2025/26. The global maize trade forecast remains nearly unchanged this month at 182.8 million tonnes as a downgrade to exports from Ukraine is offset by an increase in Uganda’s exports, reflecting changes in production prospects in both countries. By contrast, international trade in barley and sorghum is projected to rise in 2025/26 (July/June) by 2.8 percent and 15.3 percent, respectively.  The forecast for global wheat trade in 2025/26 (July/June) still indicates an increase of 4.0 percent from last season’s reduced level but has been trimmed by 0.6 million tonnes since the previous forecast to 200.0 million tonnes, reflecting a downward revision in the export forecast for the Russian Federation, which outweighs higher export prospects for Australia and Ukraine. On the import side, the decline is attributed to slightly lower imports anticipated for China (mainland), Morocco, and the United Arab Emirates. Following slight upward adjustments to export prospects for Cambodia and Viet Nam, FAO now anticipates international trade in rice to amount to 60.8 million tonnes in 2025 (January-December), up 2.0 percent from 2024 and an all-time high.

Tags: wheat, FAO, crop forecast, corn, grain, rice