Falling global prices and high transport costs increase pressure on Ukrainian corn

European corn prices continued to decline in early November 2026 amid faster harvesting in the EU and increasing supplies of Ukrainian grain. March corn futures on Euronext in Paris, which reached a three-year high of around €280/t three weeks earlier, fell to €247.75/t, or $279/t. Lower crude oil, oilseed and meal prices added further pressure on quotations. Meanwhile, the EU remains the main destination for Ukrainian corn exports amid restrictions on maritime shipments through Black Sea ports.

Corn supplies in Ukraine are gradually increasing as harvesting progresses. As of October 30, farmers had harvested 1.715 mln hectares, or 37.5% of the planned area, producing 10.776 mln tons of corn at an average yield of 6.28 t/ha. However, export activity remains weak. During the first 30 days of October, Ukraine shipped only 262 thsd tons of corn, compared with 300 thsd tons in September and 807 thsd tons in October last year. Total exports since the beginning of the 2026/27 marketing year reached 2.189 mln tons, compared with 1.72 mln tons a year earlier, supported by active shipments in July and August.

The domestic market is also facing logistical difficulties, particularly railcar delays caused by slow grain transshipment at Ukraine’s western border. Road transport costs for corn deliveries to EU buyers have increased to $150–170/t, making such shipments unprofitable. During the week, Ukrainian corn purchase prices remained at UAH 4,000–4,800/t on an FCA farm basis. Prices at Danube ports stood at UAH 7,000–7,200/t, while western terminals offered UAH 7,000–7,500/t.

At the same time, demand has emerged for corn deliveries to Ukrainian Black Sea ports at around UAH 6,000/t. This has supported farmers’ expectations of a possible resumption of operations along these export routes. However, high logistics costs and limited shipping capacity continue to restrain purchasing activity among exporters. Further growth in new-crop grain supplies could also increase pressure on domestic prices.

On the global market, corn futures are declining amid favorable planting conditions in South America and slower US export activity. In Argentina, corn has been planted on 37% of the planned area, compared with 36% a year earlier, while Brazil has reached 63%, up from 59%. In the US, 74% of the corn crop had been harvested as of November 1, while exports in the 2026/27 marketing year totaled 10.77 mln tons, down 13.2% year-on-year. December CBOT corn futures fell by another 1.6% over the week to $175/t, losing 11.7% over the month. An additional bearish factor was a 31% decline in Mexican purchases of US corn compared with the previous season.

Tags: Ukraine, corn, global market