Falling Canadian canola prices increase pressure on China’s rapeseed oil and meal markets

Canadian canola prices continue to decline on the global market, putting additional pressure on the prices of processed rapeseed products in China. According to the analytical platform SunSirs, January canola futures on the ICE exchange fell by 4.5% in the week ending November 6, 2026, reaching a four-month low. Prices have now declined for three consecutive weeks, weakening support for China’s rapeseed oil and meal markets.

Lower Canadian canola prices are affecting raw material costs for Chinese processors. As rapeseed is used to produce both edible oil and meal, cheaper supplies could gradually push prices of both products lower. SunSirs analysts believe this trend is creating predominantly bearish conditions for China’s physical and futures markets, particularly over the medium term.

The most noticeable decline has already occurred in the rapeseed oil segment. As of November 6, the benchmark January 2027 futures contract (2701) closed at 9,847 yuan per ton, down 185 yuan. Open interest stood at 297,000 contracts. According to analysts, Chinese rapeseed oil futures have already priced in part of the expected negative impact from cheaper Canadian raw materials.

Meanwhile, the rapeseed meal market has shown relatively greater resilience. On November 6, the benchmark January 2027 contract (2701) gained 40 yuan to 2,200 yuan per ton, while open interest reached 648,000 contracts. Despite falling Canadian canola prices, rapeseed meal futures have maintained short-term support. However, a further decline in imported raw material costs could gradually increase downward pressure on this market segment as well.

According to SunSirs, the future direction of China’s rapeseed oil and meal markets will largely depend on Canadian canola price movements. If raw material prices continue to decline, this could limit potential price increases for processed products and intensify competition in China’s domestic market. At the same time, the diverging trends in oil and meal futures indicate that the impact of cheaper rapeseed remains uneven across different market segments.

Tags: China, Canada, oilseeds, rapeseed, rapeseed oil