Exports of soybean meal from the US in 2024/25 MY will reach a record level

Source:  GrainTrade
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According to the USDA estimates, in 2024/25 MY the exports of soybean meal from the country will update the record for the third consecutive season and reach 15.7 mln tonnes (+9.5% compared to 2023/24 MY), despite the resumption of supplies from the world’s largest exporter of meal – Argentina after the low harvest last year, when the exports of meal decreased to 18-year low. The increase in exports is also driven by the increase in soybean processing.

In Argentina, 50% of soybean crops have already been threshed, and the production volume should be almost twice as high as last year, although it will be slightly lower than expected. As a result, Argentina’s exports of crush and meal will increase by 17% and 18% in 2023/24 MY, respectively, and by 13% and 12% in 2024/25 MY to 4-year high.

At the same time, the increase in the U.S. meal exports will be facilitated by the decrease in competition from Brazil, which will actively supply soybeans to China in 2025.

In recent years, major buyers of soybean meal, especially in Asia, the Middle East and North Africa, have significantly increased their soybean processing capacities, which will reduce their need for imported meal. However, the US meal will be attractive for importers due to the low price, as well as the meal from South America.

According to the USDA forecast, in 2024/25 MY the average price of soybean meal will decrease by 13% to 330 $/t compared to the previous season. on Wednesday in Chicago, futures were trading at 371,7 $/t, which is 14% lower than last year’s level, but 15% higher than the annual minimum.

In the U.S., the share of soybean processing in total consumption is gradually increasing, and in 2024/25 MY will reach 56%, according to USDA estimates, which will be the highest since 2007/08 MY. the Increase in China’s purchases of soybeans from Brazil led to the fact that the United States has reduced soybean exports and increased its processing.

If starting from 2017/18 MY and until 2020/21 MY the volumes of soybean processing in the U.S. exceeded the USDA forecasts, in the next three seasons they declined slightly. In April, the volume of soybean processing in the U.S. among NOPA members (whose share in U.S. soybean production reaches 95%) for the first time this season did not reach the monthly record and amounted to 166 million bushels, while the forecast was 183 million bushels.

Last month, several plants were shut down for scheduled maintenance, and the profitability of processing was the lowest in several years, which could potentially affect production volumes. This season, soybean prices have fallen to multi-year lows, and soybean oil has suffered as a result of the negative dynamics in the renewable fuels market.

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