Export restrictions in Argentina and Russia will support wheat prices

In order to avoid shortages and rising food prices, the governments of Russia and Argentina have imposed restrictions on the export of grain, in particular wheat, which this week will support stock quotes.

The Russian authorities decided from February 15 to June 30 to limit grain exports at the level of 11 million tons, in particular wheat – at the level of 8 million tons, although the previous one stipulated limiting total grain exports to 14 million tons , in particular wheat – 9 million tons.

However, traders have already taken these restrictions into account in their trading strategies, so the exchanges almost did not respond to them, and March Black Sea wheat futures on the Chicago Stock Exchange rose on Friday by only 1 1.5/ton to 3 334.5/ton.

The Argentine government also announced restrictions on corn and wheat exports in my 2021/22. Thus, wheat exports will be limited to 12.5 million tons, which will be lower than the December forecast of the USDA of 13.5 million tons, but will exceed the 11.2 million tons exported in the previous season. and corn exports will be limited to 41.6 million tons, which will exceed the December forecast of the USDA of 39 million tons and 39.8 million tons exported in the previous season.

According to the Buenos Aires Grain Exchange, as of December 16, wheat in Argentina is threshed on 66% of the area, and the production forecast remains at 21 million tons, compared with the USDA forecast of 20 million tons and last year’s harvest of 17.7 million tons.

As of December 13, 79.1 million tons of wheat were harvested in Russia, which is lower than 85.35 million tons threshed last year, but exceeds the December forecast of the USDA of 75.5 million tons.

March futures on US stock exchanges rose again on Friday:

• by 1 1.65 / ton to Чикаго 284.8/ton for soft winter SRW wheat in Chicago,
• by 2 2.3/ton to.297.6 / ton for hard winter HRW wheat in Kansas City.

At the same time, hard spring HRS wheat in Minneapolis fell by 0 0.92/ton to.375.7/ton.

European wheat on Friday rose in price after American wheat and on news about restrictions on exports from Russia.

• March European wheat futures on Paris ‘ Euronext rose 2.5 €/ton to 278.5 €/ton or 3 313.45 / ton.

The European Commission increased its forecast for soft wheat production in the EU from 130.4 to 130.6 million tons, but left the forecast for exports to countries outside the EU at 32 million tons.

GrainTrade

Tags: wheat, Argentina, Russia, grain, EU